TITLE – How Arab initiative with the new American administration can assure success in the Middle East peace process. [singlepic id=35 w=220 h=140 float=right]

The election victory in the United States by a relative outsider with a fresh approach and popular support has energized the Arab World into believing that perhaps United States policy towards this very complex and strategically important part of the world is about to undergo a transformation . This transformation, it is hoped, will result in the United States playing the role of an even handed broker in the Arab-Israeli dispute. This role, it is projected, will result in a settlement of the problem between Israel and the Palestinians which will be based on justice for the Palestinians, who are viewed in the Arab world as long suffering and having had their human rights abused over the past fifty years. At the same time Arabs hope that this fresh new American administration will encourage more democratic regimes and somehow give support to their aspirations for democracy and participation in their political and economic futures.

Similar hopes and expectations were expressed in late 2000 after the election of George W. Bush. Those hopes regrettably came to naught.

The Middle East region is currently influenced by multiple forces, each vying for influence and each trying to manipulate the very peace process, which can hopefully be resolved by the Obama administration, to further self-centered goals of political control and strategic advantage. These forces have become stronger and more threatening than ever due to the impression that the United States has no intention of helping create a “just” resolution of the problems between Palestinians and Israelis, as well as the perception that the United States is not really interested in promoting democracy in the region. As a result, Iranian influence is rising; witness the Doha Accords of July 2008 which have brought a measure of peace to Lebanon but at the expense of a political victory for Hezbollah and Iran. Also witness the rising influence of Iran in Iraq as the result of United States mistakes in the aftermath of the liberation of Iraq. Then there are the Russians who are very actively resurrecting their “counter to the US” role as the United States has moved ever closer to Israel, in perception if not reality.

As the Obama administration starts to build its key national security policy team, doubt and foreboding already have begun to set in that the new administration will not be the knight in shining armor. This knight is expected to take those ultimately hard decisions and make tough compromises in response to the complex power struggles of the region. The desire to put the responsibility on the United States is exhibited by all the parties to the troubles in the Middle East. This relieves the participants from having to make really hard choices and therefore not having to face up to their responsibilities for the future. This old way of thinking will not work. Success in the peace process will require the Arabs, as well as the Israelis, to work actively and cooperatively with the new administration.

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While the Middle East collectively watches the transition in Washington, let’s take a look at what steps the Arab participants in the Middle East can take to a) make solving the Palestinian problems with the Israelis more successful, b) stop the Iranians from establishing a PAX Iran over the GCC states but importantly stop Iran from threatening the long term security of Israel. (Too often these two goals are looked at separately, but they are both part of the same Iranian threat to establish and maintain strategic hegemony over the oil rich and politically strategic Middle East region.) and c)seek to deny influence in the region to a newly energized Russia in terms of building up its own strategic control over this still politically and economically important region.

First the Arab League, though its head of state leadership, should send a delegation to Washington to engage the new administration and recommit itself publicly to the Abdullah peace plan first announced in Beirut in 2002. The Abdullah plan promises peace for peace between the Arab world and Israel in return for a just resolution of Palestinian rights. Such a delegation would bring a commitment, to be negotiated with the new administration, to work hand in hand to put the Palestinians and Israelis back on the track toward negotiations leading to a just and lasting peace settlement. A committee of three Arab foreign ministers (Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Oman, currently head of the GCC) would stay in constant touch as an action committee with monthly meetings with the US, Palestinians and Israelis to identify and facilitate a way forward. The appointment and immediate involvement of Special Envoy George Mitchell is a step in this direction, but it is not enough to guarantee full Arab participation. Goals must be mutually arrived at and supported by all sides.

On the economic side, the GCC states (represented by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates), possessing great financial reserves, should likewise take the initiative in the first 30 days of the Obama administration to travel to Washington and propose an active cooperation between their economies and the western economies, whose interdependence is the bedrock of any solution to the current economic problems. By taking the initiative, the GCC states can feel that they are part of the solution and not merely responding to the “pressure” from Washington and London to open their wallets for contributions. By working closely, there will be many other ways for the oil rich states to work together with the developed economies for the common good.

There are many forces that will try to tear down such attempts by the Arab world and the new American administration to work together. Terrorists and terror acts will try to prevent such close cooperation. The strength of such opposition only underscores that the Arab world very much wants such close cooperation.

These recommendations are illustrative. What is necessary is that the Arab world to take the initiative. They must be actively and continuously engaged in order for these efforts to succeed. Waiting for 6 months while Washington gets its act together is not an option. There will be less chance to influence the outcome and more chance for slipping back into the mutual recriminations of the past, which lead no where and actually empower the negative forces seeking to take strategic, political, economic and moral control of the region.

john b. craig

John B. Craig (1945-present) is a native of Pennsylvania. He served the United States of America as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Combating Terrorism under President George W. Bush. The Boeing Company appointed Craig to the position of Regional Vice President in the Middle East, based in the United Arab Emirates, with a concentration on the Gulf States. He is currently a full partner and Chairman of the Board for The Jadwin Consulting Group, a prominent business consulting firm based in Abu Dhabi, founded by Thomas G. Finck in 2007 and focusing on business ventures and private equity opportunities in the Gulf region. Previously, he was Ambassador to Oman from July 31, 1998 to 2001. Craig has also served as Director of Arabian Peninsula Affairs, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the Department of State, Deputy Chief of Mission in Damascus, Syria and Bogota, Colombia. Craig holds a B.S. degree from American University’s School of International Science. He earned a master’s degree in international relations from the National War College at the National Defense University. He has served as scholar-in-residence at Elizabethtown College in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania since October 2002. On May 20, 2006, he received on honorary degree of Doctor of Public Service from Elizabethtown College.

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