Hamas and Israel are supposed to start a new Cease-Fire in forty eight hours. Although the negotiations between the two sides took a lot of time through Egypt, it seems that a new Cease-Fire is about to start. Many sources said that the period of the Cease-Fire will be between one year and year and a half.

                In this Cease-Fire Israel makes sure to open the entrances to Gaza and end the siege on it gradually. Hamas is to commit not to launch any missiles on Israel and prevent any attacks on it in the time of the Cease-Fire. The Israeli kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit deal was also discussed between the two sides through Egypt. Some Officials said that there may be an improvement in the next few weeks, and that there may be an exchange between Palestinians prisoners and Gilad very soon.

                In the Palestinian affairs, Fatah and Hamas do not seem to agree on ending the Palestinian division. President Mahmoud Abbas stated in the last week that there will be no negotiations with Hamas before they admit that the Palestinian Liberation Organization is the only representative of the Palestinian people. The chief of mobilization in Fatah, Ahmad Kure’e stated that the sixth public conference of Fatah will be held in the twenty first of March. This conference is supposed to gather all the leaders of Fatah from the Palestinian territories and the Arab world to discuss the mechanism of improving Fatah and replacing the meanwhile leaders in it. The conference was not made since more than twenty years and not convening it was a reason for criticizing Fatah by other parties like Hamas.

                Hamas seemed to retreat from its last statements about establishing a new organization to represent the Palestinians. This retreatment was made by many Hamas leaders including Alzahar after the wide refusal of this idea which was declared by most of the Palestinian movements. Khaled Meshal made the suggestion of replacing the PLO to check whether it will be accepted by the Palestinians and then changed his position by saying that he still recognizes the body of the PLO. However, he also stated that he refuses to commit to the PLO political program that includes the choice of peace with Israel. The political race between Fatah and Hamas seems to continue in order to prove that they can replace each other in leading the Palestinian people.

                The next stage of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians seems to be moving toward more disagreement between the two sides; the new expected Israeli leadership seems to refuse any kind of withdrawal from the Syrian occupied lands, and any kind of negotiations with the Palestinians about the two states solution. The Israeli public opinion seems to be convinced that only use of power will bring them security. However, this did not work in the past as it promised. Netanyahu may show a different opinion about the negotiations after the elections but he does not seem to be the suitable leader for signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians. However, this does empower Hamas’s existence within the Palestinian people and brings it more support.

                This period reminds us of the period in the beginning of the second Palestinian Intifada when Ariel Sharon was elected to become the new Israeli prime minister, and when the Palestinian former leadership reached a conclusion that peace won’t be a possible choice. This period witnessed a wide circle of violence between the two sides although the former Israeli Prime Minister Sharon promised his people to bring them security in the first one hundred days.

                Both sides seem not to acknowledge the fact that any kind of collapse in the situation will include this time the involvement of other countries in the Middle East. This conflict is complicated in which it could be either the key for peace in the whole region, or the door to a war that will include many countries in the area. Therefore, the only element that may affect on both sides to prevent a new wide violence wave is the interference of greater powers in the international community. The real challenge that is now waiting for President Obama is the suitable strategy which he has to use in order to prevent a collapse in the Middle East that may result in including the United States in a war which it does not want now.

Any possible improvement in the relation between the United States and Iran will include an influence on the Israelis and the Palestinians; Iran is interested in keeping Hamas as a representative of the Palestinians and will include it and the Palestinian situation in its negotiations with America. President Obama will not agree easily on losing its support from the Arab world and Mahmoud Abbas’s control of the Palestinian authority. However, any improvement or deteriorate in the negotiations between the United States and Iran will also affect on the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Ziad Khalil Abu Zayyad

A Palestinian-Arab living in East Jerusalem, Ziad graduated from College Des Freres in Jerusalem in 2003. Ziad finished his major in International Relations and English Literature from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Ziad is a former President of the Watan student movement at the university. He is interested in Middle Eastern political issues and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Founder of the Middle East Post and MEL (Middle East Future Leadership Network), he represents Palestinian youth at several international conferences.

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