Middle East Post

It seems that the situation between Israel and Lebanon will not stay calm as it was in the last year. After an Israeli published report about Hezbullah targets on the borders, the latter states that Israel will be targeted in several places including sensitive targets if a new war is started.

In Israel and Lebanon the media is talking about a possible confrontation between the two sides especially that officials from both sides have been talking about the importance of facing the dangers of the other side and putting an end to it. The latest war on Lebanon resulted in killing more than 1200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis. The war was stopped after a UN decision that included the removing of Hezbullah forces from areas near the Israeli borders. Although Hezbullah stated several times that it is not interested in any new confrontation with Israel, it continues to prepare its forces and enlarge its stock of missiles and weapons to face any new Israeli attack on Lebanon.

The Israeli army has been training its soldiers and putting strategies and plans for facing Hezbullah since the end of the latest war. It seems that the last war did not end until this moment and both sides are simply preparing very well for the next round. On one hand Hezbullah refuses to put an end to its operations and preparations for a confrontation with Israel since it considers the latter an enemy that continues to violate the Lebanese sovereignty, occupy Arab lands and wishes to target any personality which is known to be close to Hezbullah. On the other hand Israel considers Hezbullah an enemy that is close to Iran and represents a great danger on the existence of Israel in the region. The Israeli army failed until today to face Hezbullah and come out with a victory that would put an end to the power of the Islamic Shit organization. Instead every time Israel attacks Hezbullah the latter becomes more popular within the Arab peoples and gains more support from the Lebanese and the Arabs that empower its control and authority in Lebanon.

Hezbullah’s achievements in obliging Israel to withdraw from the south of Lebanon and releasing all of the Lebanese prisoners while using force and military operations made the choice of force a successful one while others who invited the Arab peoples to support the peace and negotiations choice found themselves losing since they failed to achieve anything. The situation today is different from the day the last war on Lebanon was launched. Hezbullah has developed its intelligence knowledge and succeeded in brining more weapons and missiles to use in any new confrontation with Israel. Iran today would be interested in supporting any new war that would create a pressure on the West and prove that Iran can decide in the Middle Easter matters. Hezbullah, Syria and Iran agree with each other that any attack on one of them would definitely affect the interests of all of them. Israel will not only have to face Hezbullah but it will have to face other actors which would turn a possible war from being local to include the whole region.

The Israeli army knows this fact very well and that’s why it is preparing strategies to face Hezbullah, Syria and even Iran at the same time. Hezbullah’s advantage in facing the Israeli army while using the street battles strategy is also known for Israel. However, what is still not known for Israel is the way such a war would be ended. We are talking about two important and affecting countries and another armed organization that almost controls the state it exists in. Opening a war with three countries together while considering the Iranian nuclear project, the Syrian missiles and army, and Hezbullah’s control and experience in the south of Lebanon is not something that Israel would want to go for. Israel and another Western actors tried to face the Iranian nuclear threat while using intelligence strategies that includes the striking of the governing regime by supporting internal opposition movements. Such strategies did not really succeed in Iran. Israel’s greatest problem now is to do something that would bring the attention of the world into the area and oblige them to put an end for what Israel considers the greatest threat on its existence.

So will Israel open a war with Hezbullah and risk the possibility of having to face several actors in the Middle East while relying on the support it gets from the United States or it will open a secret war which includes targeting important targets and personalities while staying away from a declared confrontation that will oblige all the sides to respond strongly until no one can control the situation. To my opinion neither Israel nor Hezbullah and its allies are interested in opening a war now not because of any good intentions but only to be well prepared for a war that will change the political and military map in the Middle East. Eventhough they may not be interested, war sometimes is started without deciding to start it.

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