Recently, the Israeli government sent several threats to the Lebanon by threatening to react against any attack launched by Hezbollah by[singlepic id=50 w=320 h=240 float=right] targeting Lebanon itself. The Israeli government stated that If Hezbollah attacks any Israeli in any place Israel will be ready to attack its targets on the Lebanese soil.

Hezbollah officials stated that the organization is even stronger today and is ready to react to any Israeli attack. They also stated that the military force of the organization is well prepared for any possible confrontation with Israel. The officials also stated that Israel will not dare to start a new war with Lebanon since the United States will not support such a move at this moment.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that there are no “Winds of War” in the north and what is going on now is only a war of words and media. However, the Israeli movements and trainings held at the north borders seem to be different from the political statements made.

The Lebanese army reacted by moving some of its forces towards the borders with Israel in order to show a kind of reaction.
Although both sides claim that there are no winds of war at the north, it seems that they are acting exactly as they did before the last Israeli Lebanese war. Both sides continue to prepare themselves for the next battle while claiming that nothing serious is going on.

Hezbollah did not react until today for the death of Emad Mughnieh but continues to state that it is its right to take revenge for one of its important leaders at any time and in any place. This is considered a card which Hezbollah keeps for itself to be used in the time it sees it is needed. The equation is more complicated than what it seems to be since the Iranian destiny is connected to Hezbollah. Both would not react without a complete cooperation and measurement.

Israel seems to be waiting for one step which would be made by Hezbollah in order to launch a new war and release the pressure which has been made on it since the new American administration took the lead of the White House. It is one of the Israeli strategies to keep on launching wars with other actors in the region because it makes them feel that they are still the strongest in the Middle East. Another reason is a belief which many Israeli leaders find effective; Arabs will continue to fear any confrontation with Israel when they see the results of war with it.

The question is where to find a place to start a new round of fight specially that both sides would not prefer to launch an attack without a reason. In the last war, former Prime Minister Olmert started the war because of the three kidnapped Israeli soldiers while Hezbollah claimed that it kidnapped them to return its prisoners who have been imprisoned for years by Israel.

The sensitivity of the situation becomes more because of the Iranian threat which Israel wants to put an end to it as soon as possible. Several reports said that Israel demanded for a green light from the White House to launch an attack on Iranian targets while the Iranians were busy with their internal demonstrations and conflict.

While writing about the Middle East one can always be right and sure if he or she predicts a war coming on its way to the area. It seems to be only a matter of time since many are interested in launching a war rather than finding a diplomatic solution.

Ziad Khalil Abu Zayyad

A Palestinian-Arab living in East Jerusalem, Ziad graduated from College Des Freres in Jerusalem in 2003. Ziad finished his major in International Relations and English Literature from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Ziad is a former President of the Watan student movement at the university. He is interested in Middle Eastern political issues and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Founder of the Middle East Post and MEL (Middle East Future Leadership Network), he represents Palestinian youth at several international conferences.

Website - More Posts