The Middle East Mystery…to Where?
Recently Israel has been stating that the Iranian threat must be ended and that it is impossible to live with the idea of having someone like Ahmadi Najad ready to erase Israel from the World map. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he will take responsibility and prevent anyone from causing the Jewish people another holocaust.
Secretary Hillary Clinton made several important statements regarding the Iranian threat and the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Clinton said that the United States and Israel will lose the Arab support in facing Iran if the latter keeps on denying the Palestinian’s right in having their own state. Clinton also stated that the United States will not stop its financial support for the Palestinian Authority because of Hamas; according to her the United States did not stop its financial support to the Lebanese government although Hezbollah was a part of it. Clinton said that it is America’s interest to keep good relations with the Arabs.
A new threat that is facing the United States is the Taliban growing control of many cities in Pakistan. The nightmare of having a new extreme power holding nuclear weapons is now becoming impossible to be ended since Pakistan is becoming a more dangerous threat than Iran. President Obama stated that in order to create a strong alliance to face the Iranian threat including Arab countries such as Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, then Israel will have to make a progress in the Two states solution with the Palestinians.
The European Union stated that in order to move the Israeli European relations into a higher level, Israel must agree on a two states solution and work for it.
It seems that all these statements are proving that the West in general is convinced that the Arab world is important in any move against the Iranian threat or even any possible danger from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The current Israeli leadership prefers facing Iran with force in order to end the Iranian threat for ever. However, the United States economical and military capabilities are not really good to stat a new war after the terrible results in the war on Iraq. Beside this, the current American leadership does believe that these threats can be faced through diplomatic channels.
The United States will not only need the Arab formal support in facing Iran but also the Arab peoples understanding of any move against Iran or any kind of pressure that will be created on it in order to make it stop its nuclear projects. The only chance to gain such a support is by finding a real solution for the main case which ahs been filling the Arab lives since more than sixty years. The United States has been always known as a main ally of Israel in which both countries cooperate and need each other.
Once we are talking about an American effort which is made to try to make Israel agree on any kind og compromise regarding the Palestinian demands, this does not mean that this will cause real damage in the American Israeli relations. The question is what will be the Israeli move to get out of this dilemma.
Israel will have three choices in facing the international pressure regarding the Palestinian demand to get their independence and state:
The Israeli current leadership does not believe in giving the Palestinians any kind of state and believe that the only way of maintaining the security of Israel is by holding a complete control of the Palestinian territories and in using force against them. Therefore the choices which Israel will have are either to strike Iran and end the Iranian threat without giving any chance for the Americans to use their diplomatic solutions. By doing so Israel will not have to make any kind of compromise regarding the Palestinian demands and the Arab countries will lose another winning card in solving the Palestinian case.
However, this option will make Israel face thousands of rockets which Iran will launch as a reaction. This choice is dangerous since many other parties such as Hezbollah and Syria may participate in the Iranian reaction.
The other choice which Israel may choose is to convince the world that it is ready to go through negotiations with the Palestinians about the two states solution. This option will not bring any real result and will be dangerous for the internal Israel situation; Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government was made on condition that the Israel state will not recognize the two states solution. Therefore, many right Israeli parties may leave the government and this will cause the failure of Netanyahu.
It is really a mystery but the unique thing in it is that every day reveals more of what is waiting for us.
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I believe that the west has seen through the Natanyahu’s administration’s strategy of trying to divert attention to Iran and underplaying the resolution of the the Palestinian situation. It is in the interest of Natanyahu’s administration to froce the Iranian threat on the agenda. But to put it bluntly, the west and USA has this time got things pretty much sown up. They acknowledge the Iranian threat but however, sees the Palestinian problem as the means to deal with that threat and will persue that route. Much to the disatisfaction of the Israeli governemnt Goerge Mitchell has spelt it loud and clear to them as has the west that a two state solution is the only way forward. Goerge Mitchell went further by classifying it as a “Soveriegn Palestinan State” which means free from Israeli interference.
My forecast is that we will see the Natayahu administration bite the bullet and chnge their course. This could spell the end of his administration. The other possibility is for the current administration to restart negotiation with the Syrian and come to some agreement on the Golan Heights and secure peace with the syrian. There again the Syrian has made it clear that the negotiation should be comprehensive including the Palestinian solution.
I give the current Isreali administration at most another year before we see all the cracks tearing it down.
What is encouraging is that the route to peace now appears more realistic than it did four months back. On the Palestinian side, they need to quickly get their house in order and capitalise on the opportunities that presents.
I completely agree with you Rashid specially in the importance of arranging their house order.
The Isralei leadership at this time is seriusly flawed. They cant cope with the existence of a powerfull islamic state ( A nuclear iran). For peace in the middle east the Israeli millitary force must be questioned either politcaly or military. The IDF actiona in the Gaza must be punished, and its is the responibilty of all muslims around the world to punish thoses responsible for the crimes in the gaza strip